Bomb Cyclone to Affect Montserrat, Large Swells Expected

The Caribbean Basin is about to see another round of large and damaging swells reaching its shorelines starting Saturday, from a bomb cyclone. Montserrat is expected to feel the affects of this later this weekend, according to the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA).

Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section confirmed that the swells are forecast to exceed 3.5 metres (12 feet) and break at higher heights, as surfs, on coastlines. This is likely to be the biggest swell event since Swellmageddon of March 2018.

The Meteorologist said, although this system will form over 3220 km (2000 miles) away, it will have a significant impact on the region, through its strong winds pushing unusually high waves to our shores. The first set of these swells will reach the Bahamas on Saturday; the northeast Caribbean on Sunday. The event will likely last three days from its start time. So, for the northeast Caribbean, it’s Sunday through Tuesday.

Destin disclosed that the swells will rise to in excess of 3.5 metres across most of the Atlantic waters of the islands. Their swells will produce even higher surfs or breaking waves.

These surfs could be as much as twice the height of the incoming swells, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the nearshore seafloor. This is expected to cause beach closures, as swimming conditions will become quite hazardous. Other impacts include:

• major beach erosion;
• flooding of some low-lying coastal roads;
• disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
• disruptions to potable water from desalination;
• damage to coral reefs and
• Financial losses.
Advisories and warnings will be required for the weekend and or the first half of next week.

The Meteorologist/Climatologist disclosed that the impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters, the impact will be different.