Scientific Report Confirms Montserrat’s Volcano Remains in a State of Unrest

The latest report from the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) on Montserrat Volcanic Activity confirms that the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) remains in a state of unrest, though with low levels of activity.

The SAC29 report, based on its November 2024 meeting, states, “The activity has remained low and is broadly consistent with levels of unrest observed since 2019, with some distinct, but still low level, changes in seismicity.” The report further notes that “the pattern of deformation reflecting ongoing island-wide inflation continues, albeit at a slower rate, while the seismicity over timescales of months and the rate of seismic moment release have all increased.”

While there has been no lava extrusion since 2010, the report highlights that “volcano-tectonic earthquakes have been recorded more frequently and in different locations than in previous years.” However, the SAC emphasises that “none of these hypotheses appear to herald any impending restart of eruption, but instead reinforce the understanding that the magmatic system of SHV is still active at depth, but evolving, producing new styles of unrest.”

Government officials, including Premier Reuben T. Meade and Governor Sarah Tucker, were present during stakeholder discussions on volcanic risk management. The SAC report states that these discussions aimed to “introduce the new government ministers and other stakeholders to the SAC, as well as to frame and orientate SAC discussions on specific issues of current interest to the Government of Montserrat.”

The report also addresses concerns regarding “out-of-the-blue” eruption scenarios. It concludes that “the annual risk of death by volcanic activity to a worker in zone V based on the current levels of access is estimated to be less than 3-in-a-million (i.e., minimal to negligible risk) and on a par with risk posed by other natural hazards such as death from hurricanes [or] regional earthquakes over the next year.”

Regarding hazard preparedness, the SAC recommends that “a strong recommendation to prioritise for completion these future hazards layer(s), in particular for ballistics and pyroclastic flows followed by lahars.” It also advises that the Government of Montserrat should “implement Workplace/occupational safety and health risk assessments for all those working within Zone V.”

Montserrat will host an international conference in July 2025 to mark the 30th anniversary of the Soufrière Hills Volcano eruption. According to the report, “MVO is already making good progress in the organisation, has advertised for a conference coordinator and has an international science committee on board.”

As Montserrat continues to navigate the balance between development and volcanic risk, the SAC emphasizes the need for sustained monitoring and structured decision-making. “Continued close vigilance of the signals produced by SHV remains essential in order to swiftly detect any significant change in the system,” the report states.

For ongoing updates, residents are encouraged to follow MVO’s official channels and attend public information sessions.

Read the full report here.