Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast for 2025

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be another active one, with researchers in the United States predicting above-average storm activity – though slightly less intense than last year’s record-setting forecast.

According to the latest seasonal outlook from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software (TCRAMS) team, the upcoming season is expected to produce 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The average for the 1990–2020 period is significantly lower: about 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per year.

The forecast suggests hurricane activity will be about 125% of the 30-year seasonal average, a modest dip from 2024’s prediction, which called for 130% above normal. CSU researcher Levi Silvers told CBS News that although the drop is noteworthy, the season remains one to prepare for.

“It’s a noticeable and important difference because it matters for people along the coastlines whenever we have an above average season,” Silvers said. “But I think what’s really important to understand here is that the amount of hurricanes that are occurring in the Atlantic and in the Gulf fluctuates a lot from decade to decade.”

Warm Ocean Temperatures a Driving Force

The primary factor fueling the forecast is warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, a condition that typically supports more frequent and stronger storms. While 2024 saw record-breaking ocean heat levels, Silvers noted that while waters have cooled slightly, they remain significantly warmer than historical norms.

“It was super warm, warmer than we’ve really seen before,” Silvers said of last year. “They’re still warmer than normal [this year], but the temperatures have come down since last time. So that’s one of the main factors why we’re forecasting less [activity] than last year, but it’s still above average.”

ENSO Uncertainty Plays a Role

Another key variable in the forecast is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a climate pattern that influences hurricane development. CSU researchers say weak La Niña conditions are currently in place but expect a shift to neutral ENSO status later in the year. The absence of El Niño, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation, could pave the way for a more active season.

“Trying to figure out if it’s going to be a neutral state, or El Niño or La Niña is part of the challenge,” said Silvers, citing it as a major source of forecast uncertainty.

Storm Names for 2025

The World Meteorological Organization assigns names to tropical storms once they reach sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph. If winds climb to 74 mph, the system becomes a hurricane. The 2025 Atlantic storm name list starts with Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and continues alphabetically (excluding Q, U, X, Y, and Z), ending with Wendy.

Here are the 2025 names in order:

• Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Ferdinand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.

Season Timeline and Preparedness

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30, a window when conditions are historically most favorable for tropical storm development. Both CSU and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will continue to monitor conditions and update forecasts as the season approaches.

Silvers also emphasised the importance of NOAA’s global data collection efforts, particularly amid recent budget cuts.

“It really would be pretty much impossible to get a good forecast for future hurricane seasons without NOAA’s observational network,” he said.

Residents are urged to stay informed and prepare early, even if the season’s total number of storms doesn’t tell the full story. Just one storm can have a major impact.