The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA, is closely monitoring the three tropical disturbances in the central Atlantic. Two of the disturbances have moderate chances of formation and could become tropical depressions by mid-week, while the other one is no threat to Montserrat at this time.
Based on NOAA 5 Day Forecast: Disturbance 1, an area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. some gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week. Residents should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This system has a 40% chance of development within the next five days.
We have another area of low pressure we are monitoring, Disturbance 2, the system is still some days away. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favourable for gradual development over the next several days, and this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of this week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest by mid-week. This system has a 40% chance of development within the next five days.
This last system, Disturbance 3, is No threat to Montserrat at this time, as it continues to produce diminishing showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. This system has a near 0% chance of development in five days.
The DMCA will continue to monitor these disturbances and provide regular updates. As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, residents, visitors and in particular the vulnerable are urged to be vigilant and be prepared.
