Tropical Storm Erin Strengthening; Northeast Caribbean Urged to Stay Alert

Tropical Storm Erin is continuing to strengthen as it tracks westward across the Atlantic and could pose a threat to the northeast Caribbean by the weekend, according to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service.

As of 5:00 PM ECT on Wednesday, August 13, Erin was located approximately 1,105 miles east of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving West at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph with higher gusts. The system is expected to intensify over the coming days and could become a hurricane by Friday.

Forecaster Dale Destin said the storm “remains on a path that could bring it dangerously close to the islands,” particularly Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the Northeast Caribbean. While the current forecast suggests the centre of Erin will pass north of the region with a low chance of sustained storm-force winds, officials warn that any further southward or westward shift could bring the core uncomfortably close late Friday night or Saturday.

“It is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the islands,” Destin stated. However, rough seas and coastal hazards are likely. “The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards could come into play in the next 24 hours.”

There are currently no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area, but that could change by Thursday if Erin’s trajectory shifts. A tropical storm watch may be issued if needed.

The chance of storm-force winds impacting the islands remains low, with a 35 percent probability for Anguilla, around 10 percent for Antigua, and even lower for other parts of the northeast Caribbean.

Residents in the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands are being urged to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Erin closely and to remain prepared as the hurricane season continues.

The next update from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service is expected around 5:00 PM on Thursday or sooner if necessary.