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Met Offices Keeping an Eye on New Disturbance, Season Predicted to Be Above-Normal

After weeks of quiet in the tropics, hurricane forecasters are watching a new disturbance off Africa.

According to the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA), the National Hurricane Center is watching a newly formed Tropical Wave that emerged in the Eastern Atlantic early Saturday morning. Meteorologists are forecasting the disturbance to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend.

The NHC expects some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week.

The system has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and 20% in the next five days.

The DMCA is encouraging residents to complete their hurricane plans now.

Earlier this week, the NHC said it is sticking to its predictions of an above-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor the Atlantic Basin for any development with Tropical Disturbance 1 and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.